Today is November 1—a.k.a. 11/1—which reminds me of the scriptural passage in Hebrews 11:1 that reads, “Faith is being sure of what we hope for and certain of what we do not see.” Because my religion is skepticism and my legal training demands proof of matters asserted, not mere opinion and blind faith, I’ve long been amazed that people can be “sure” and “certain” of things for which there is no compelling evidence. [1]
Casey
Anthony
Though
it’s always simmering, faux certainty boiled to the surface when a recent
dinner conversation touched on the Casey Anthony trial. Ms. Anthony, you may
recall, is the Florida
mom acquitted last July of killing her child because the government didn’t
prove its case. Certain guests at the table absolutely knew that
she’s guilty, and said so in no uncertain terms. When I probed them on how they
could be sure, the answer boiled down to a gut feeling and Heb. 11:1.
Never
mind that they hadn’t been in the courtroom to hear the testimony. Never mind
that they hadn’t seen one minute of the trial on Court TV. And never mind that
the jurors who did hear all the
evidence felt the prosecutors hadn’t proven guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.
The self-appointed judges at the table were prepared to condemn a defendant
they’d never seen on the strength of newspaper accounts, talk radio call-in
shows, and commentaries by the likes of Nancy Grace (who, among others, ranted for ratings while
the trial was underway).
I
understand my friends’ emotional, visceral reaction—and I must admit that
something does seem fishy about the whole case—but my inner lawyer had to point
out that “not guilty” is a technical term. It does not mean that the defendant
did no wrong; it means there wasn’t enough evidence to convict her. We don’t
send people to jail on the basis of intuition or a biblical faith in things not
seen.
Somehow
the discussion then turned to politics, and one of the guests proclaimed
proudly that she’s a Republican. How that was relevant to anything I don’t
recall but it led to various opinions around the table about President Obama,
healthcare reform, the state of the economy, and so forth. It was clear to me
that we were on dangerous ground, and mercifully the Republican saw the
quicksand too and changed the subject.
The
Hebrews scripture
Only
later that evening did I recall the passage from Hebrews and come to the
realization that one could substitute opinion
for faith in that scripture.
One’s opinion—whether about a celebrity trial, a political candidate, or a
given public policy issue—is rarely more than a matter of faith. Not being well
versed in the facts, our opinions amount to little more than the assurance of
things hoped for and the certainty of things not seen. I ask you:
- Who among us sat in the jury box and heard all the evidence in Casey Anthony’s trial? Not you, not my dinner companions, and not I. Who are we to judge?
- Who among us knows all the relevant details of the health reform law? Not I, even though I’ve read the whole thing, have given it serious study, and have written about it in my work. And certainly not the Breakfast Bloviator of whom I wrote in October of last year.
- Who among us will know what the political candidates really stand for when we go to the polls next year? None of us. All we’ll know is sound bites and the “spin” that gets reported in the media.
Unless
we are experts on a particular subject, what most of us think we know about these and an infinite number of similar questions
is what the media feed us. And the media—whether print or electronic,
commercial or “public”—feed us what we want to hear. Local television, Fox News
Channel, the New York Times, even
NPR—all have to stay in business. And they know that their respective audiences
suffer from the psychological flaw known as confirmation
bias—a tendency to support the things one already believes or wants to be
true while ignoring evidence to the contrary. In other words, “Smart people
believe weird things because they are skilled at defending beliefs they arrived
at for nonsmart reasons.”[2]
Confirmation
bias helps to explain “nonsmart” things like psychics, “birthers,” and Michelle
Bachmann. It may be the reason for selective memory, conspiracy theories, and
belief in UFOs. It may even help to explain Hebrews 11:1.
Is confirmation bias why my Republican friends
refuse to consider virtually anything Obama and the Democrats support? Is blind
faith in Reaganomics the reason why the top 1% of wealthy Americans aren’t
asked to kick in a bit more to solve the debt crisis? Is confirmation bias the
reason Fox News and talk radio can stay on the air?
Politics
= religion
Being
“certain” of one’s beliefs in the face of—or while refusing to consider—contrary
evidence is not especially harmful as a matter of religious preference. But when
unjustified certainty begins to confirm prejudices and to affect public policy, it is
malignant. If we are blind to evidence that refutes our preconceived hypotheses,
we are in danger of crossing the line from reasonableness to closed-mindedness
and bigotry.[3]
Hebrews 11:1 helps me remember that politics is a
religion: a blind faith in things we hope for but cannot (or will not) see. I don’t discuss religion
with others; henceforth I won’t discuss politics either. Confirmation bias
makes either conversation futile and frustrating, and trying to influence someone’s
political opinion is as likely to succeed as trying to persuade them that their
religion is wrong.
Exactly
one year from Sunday—November 6, 2012—millions of U.S. citizens will march to the
polls and exercise their religio-political right to vote, and they will do so
based on little more than blind faith in their preconceived notions. My New
Year’s resolution for 2012 will be to explain confirmation bias to any of them
who will listen. Unfortunately, given the concepts expressed in Heb. 11:1, not
many will.
# # #
Once
again, my Personal Creed--
Don't believe everything you read or hear. Always be skeptical. Always doubt. Demand proof. Spread truth, not rumor.
Don't believe everything you read or hear. Always be skeptical. Always doubt. Demand proof. Spread truth, not rumor.
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| Sixth Edition cover |
[Editor’s
note: For the past two months the Hermit Philosopher has been preoccupied with
the final stages of textbook publication. The book will go to the printer in
a week or so, and then the HP will resume a more regular blogging
schedule.]
